The Changing Patterns Of U.S. Immigration: What The Presidential Field should Know, And You 美国移民格局的变迁：你和总统候选人都该知道的事 作者：Joel Kotkin @ 2015-8-11

译者：陈小乖（@lion_kittyyyyy)

校对：带菜刀的诗人（@帶菜刀的詩人_），慕白（@李凤阳他说）

来源：Forbes, http://www.forbes.com/sites/joelkotkin/2015/08/11/the-changing-patterns-of-u-s-immigration-what-the-presidential-field-should-know-and-you/ Public concern about illegalimmigration, particularly among older native-born Americans , as well as the rising voting power of Latinos, all but guarantees that immigration is an issue that will remain at the forefront in the run-up to the 2016 elections.

美国公众（尤其是较为年长的土生土长美国人）对非法移民问题的关切，以及拉丁裔投票权的日益增长，这两种因素几乎可以肯定让移民问题成为2016年大选的关键议题。

Nor is this merely a right-wing issue, as evidenced in the controversy over “ sanctuary cities ”; even the progressive Bernie Sanders has expressed concern that massive uncontrolled immigration could “make everybody in America poorer.”

这不仅仅是右翼所面临的问题，就像在“避难所城市”【译注： 指那些有着旨在庇护非法移民政策的城市 】的争议中所表明的那样；甚至进步派Bernie Sanders也表达了对大量不受限制的移民将“让在美国的每个人都变得更穷”的担忧。

Yet despite the political heat, there is precious little dispassionate examination of exactly where immigrants are coming from, and where in the U.S. they are headed. To answer these questions, we turned to demographer Wendell Cox , who analyzed the immigration data between 2010 and 2013 for the 52 metropolitan statistical areas with populations over a million.

然而，尽管它是政治热点，但对移民们究竟从哪里来，又去向美国何处的冷静分析却屈指可数。为了回答这些问题，我们咨询了人口学家Wendell Cox，他分析了2010至2013年52个人口超过百万的都市统计区的移民数据。

One would think listening to the likes of Donald Trump that the country is awash with hordes of unwanted newcomers from Mexico and Central America. But sorry, Donald, the numbers show a changing picture in terms of who is coming, as well as the places that they choose to settle.

人们可能会听信类似Donald Trump的言论，说这个国家充斥着大量来自于墨西哥和中美洲的不受欢迎的移民。可是，对不起，Donald，有关哪些人来到这个国家，以及他们选择去哪儿定居，数据揭示出的是一幅不断变化着的图景。 移民比重最大的美国城市

第一名：迈阿密，佛罗里达州

国外出生人口：226万

占总人口的比例，2013年：38.8%

第二名：圣何塞，加州

国外出生人口：719,460

占总人口的比例，2013年：37.5%

第三名：洛杉矶，加州

国外出生人口：439万

占总人口的比例，2013年：33.2%

第四名：旧金山，加州

国外出生人口：134万

占总人口的比例，2013年：29.7%

第五名：纽约，纽约州-新泽西州-宾夕法尼亚州

国外出生人口：569万

占总人口的比例，2013年：28.5%

第六名：圣迭戈，加州

国外出生人口：761,580

占总人口的比例，2013年：23.7%

第七名：休斯敦，德克萨斯州

国外出生人口：142万

占总人口的比例，2013年：22.6%

第八名：华盛顿，哥伦比亚特区

国外出生人口：131万

占总人口的比例，2013年：22.0%

第九名：拉斯维加斯，内华达州

国外出生人口：440,866

占总人口的比例，2013年：21.7%

第十名：河滨-圣伯纳迪诺，加州

国外出生人口：932,747

占总人口的比例，2013年：21.3%

Perhaps due to Mexico’s stronger economy and lower birthrates, Mexicans are no longer as dominant in the ranks of new immigrants as in the last decade. Mexico is still the single largest place of origin of new immigrants, but from 2010 through 2013, Mexican migration to the U.S. dropped 17.7% to an average of 140,266 a year, according to data from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security.

可能由于墨西哥经济状况改善及出生率下降等原因，墨西哥人在新移民中所占比重不像2001-2010年间那么高。虽然墨西哥仍然是新移民的最大单一来源地，但美国国土安全部的数据显示，在2010-2013年间，移民来美国的墨西哥人数量下降到了平均每年140,266人，降幅17.7%。

Meanwhile the inflow from Asia has increased: immigration from China is up 25.8% to 74,458 a year, and 10.7% from India to 65,336 a year. Asia now equals the Americas as a source of new immigrants, with each accounting for 40% of the annual total.

与此同时，亚洲移民的数量有所增加：来自中国的移民增加了25.8%，达到每年74,458人，来自印度的移民增加了10.7%，达到每年65,336人。目前，亚洲已成为和美洲份量相当的新移民来源，他们各占每年移民总数的40%。

European immigration, once the mainstay of growth for the U.S., fell 32% from 2010 to 2013 to an average of 91,000 a year, surpassed by the number of African immigrants, which has soared 29.6% to 98,000 annually.

曾一度是美国增长支柱的欧洲移民人数在2010-2013年下降到了平均每年91,000，降幅32%。欧洲移民人数已被非洲移民赶超，后者在此期间猛增29.6%，达到每年98,000人。

America’s new African population tends to be well-educated — considerably more than the national average: they are more than 60% more likely to have a graduate degree than other Americans. The vast majority are fluent in English and fully one-third hold management or professional level jobs.

美国的新非洲移民人口往往受过良好教育——显著高于全国平均水平：他们拥有硕士学历的比例比其他美国人高出60%。其中绝大多数人都能说流利的英语，同时，足足三分之一的人拥有管理或专业职位。

Not surprisingly, they are generally doing well in their new country. The places where they settle — notably New York, greater Washington , Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth — will likely benefit from their presence in coming years.

不出所料，他们在新的国家里都干得不错。今后几年，这些移民定居的地方可能会显现出他们所带来的益处，尤其是纽约、大华府、休斯敦和达拉斯-沃思堡。

Just as Mexican and Asian immigration changed the ethnic geography of America, boosting economies and changing local culture, one can expect the Africans to do much the same in the coming years.

就像墨西哥和亚洲移民改变了美国的族群分布，促进了经济增长，改变了当地的文化，我们可以预期，未来几年非洲移民也会产生相同的效应。 The Largest And Fastest-Growing Immigrant Hubs 最大、发展最快的移民聚集地 The largest foreign-born communities in America reflect both size and longstanding immigrant populations. The leader remains the New York metropolitan statistical area, which was home in 2013 to 5.69 million people born elsewhere, following by Los Angeles with 4.3 million, Miami with 2.2 million, Chicago with 1.69 million and Houston with 1.39 million.

美国最大的那些国外出生者社群，不仅反映了移民的规模，还反映了其持久性。排在首位的依然是纽约都会统计区，2013年569万出生于别处的人安家于此，洛杉矶以430万人紧随其后，然后是迈阿密220万，芝加哥169万，休斯敦139万。

But a look at the metro areas with the fastest-growing foreign-born communities tells a different story, one of growing migration into the more interior and central parts of the country. In many ways, this reflects the attraction of areas with relatively low housing prices and buoyant local economies. In contrast, the economies of many traditional immigrant hubs like Los Angeles and Chicago have not done so well, while places in coastal California and near New York suffer from high housing prices.

但细看这些拥有发展最快的国外出生人口社群的都会区，会发现另一幅景象，其一是，越来越多的人迁移到美国的内陆和中部地区。这从许多角度反映出了那些具有较低房价和较高经济增速的地区的吸引力。相反，许多传统移民聚集地的经济表现则较差，如洛杉矶和芝加哥，而加州沿海地区和纽约附近则受到高房价的制约。

Pittsburgh ranks first for recent pace of growth, with a 17.4% jump in its foreign-born population to 89,000 from 2010 through 2013, almost four times the 4.3% national rate over the same span. The western Pennsylvania city has built a robust economy based on energy, medical services and technology.

在最近的移民人口增速排名中，匹兹堡位列第一，2010-2013年间17.4%的增速使其国外出生人口达到了89,000，几乎四倍于同期国内平均水平4.3%。能源、医疗服务和科技给这个西宾夕法尼亚州城市带来了稳健的经济增长。

Its housing prices are low — roughly a third those of the Bay Area based on median income — and the city is situated in an attractive setting with rolling hills.

当地的房价也较低——按收入中位数算，其房价大约仅为湾区的三分之一，此外，匹兹堡还坐落于连绵起伏的迷人山丘之中。

Pittsburgh is attracting both less educated immigrants from more expensive places, and also educated newcomers, notes demographer Jim Russell, some due to the strong universities in the area.

人口学家Jim Russell指出，匹兹堡不仅从高物价地区吸引来了没受过太多教育的移民，同时也吸引着受过良好教育的新移民，部分原因在于该地区有着高质量的大学。

Other surprising heartland destinations for immigrants include Indianapolis, whose foreign-born population expanded 14.3% in 2010-13 to 127,767, the second fastest rate of growth among the largest metro areas; Oklahoma City (third fastest, up 12.9% to 110,269); and Columbus, Ohio (up 9.8% to 139,562). Generally, these cities, like Pittsburgh, have strong economies, low housing prices and favorable state regulatory climates.

其他出人意料的内陆移民目的地还包括印第安纳波利斯，其国外出生人口在2010-2013年扩张了14.3%，达到127,767人，在所有大都会区移民人口增速中排名第二；俄克拉荷马市（增速排名第三，增长了12.9%，达到110,269人）；俄亥俄州的哥伦布（增长了9.8%，达到139,562人）。这些城市通常都像匹兹堡一样，拥有如下特征：经济强劲、低房价、所在州监管环境有利。 The Move South Continues 向南移动仍在继续 Until the 1970s, the South was an also-ran in immigration, with the exception of Florida. But today many of the fastest-growing foreign-born communities are in the South. These include still-recovering New Orleans, whose numbers of foreign born surged 12.4% in 2010-13 to 91,412, as well as Charlotte (up 11.2% to 225,673) and Austin (up 10.7% to 279,923).

1970年代之前，除了佛罗里达，南方一直是移民方面的落后者。但如今许多快速发展中的国外出生者社群都在南方。这些地方包括仍在复苏的新奥尔良，其国外出生人口在2010-2013年增长了12.4%，达到91,412人，还有夏洛特（增长了11.2%，达到225,673人）和奥斯丁（增长了10.7%，达到279,923人）。

This movement to the South in recent decades has changed the geography of the most immigrant rich parts of the country. Three of the 10 metro areas with the largest number of foreign born residents are in the south. Miami has some 2.26 million immigrant residents make up with 38.8% of its population, the highest proportion of any large metro area in the country. The Houston metro area has the fifth biggest foreign-born population, Dallas-Ft. Worth, the eighth.

最近几十年的向南移动改变了移民人口最密集地区在全国的地理分布格局。10个国外出生居民数量最多的都会区中，3个在南方。迈阿密拥有226万移民，占其总人口的38.8%，也是全国各都会区中移民比重最大的。休斯敦都会区在国外出生者数量上排第五，达拉斯-沃斯堡排第八。

The Texas metro areas, and their emerging southern counterparts, offer much of what the prospering Rust Belt cities also provide — strong broad-based economies and an affordable cost of living, particularly housing. Immigrants tend to prioritize home ownership and often work in thriving blue-collar fields such as manufacturing, logistics and construction.

德克萨斯州的都会区，以及其它新兴南方城市，提供了那些欣欣向荣的铁锈带城市【译注： 铁锈带又称制造带、工厂带，系指以钢铁业为代表的美国传统重工业密集分布区，大致位于美国中部靠近大湖区东侧，包括纽约、宾夕法尼亚、西弗吉尼亚、俄亥俄、印第安纳、密歇根等州的部分地区。这些地方后来因美国制造业外移而衰弱，留下大量生锈工厂，因而得名。作者此处“欣欣向荣”一语应是指近年的移民热潮，上文提到的匹兹堡、印第安纳波利斯、俄克拉荷马市、哥伦布市，皆处于该地带。 】所能提供的一切——强劲并且基础深厚的经济和低廉的生活成本，尤其是住房成本。移民倾向于把拥有住房所有权放在优先位置，他们通常就职于蓬勃发展的蓝领产业，比如制造业、物流业和建筑业。 Coastal Growth Follows The Economy 沿海的移民增长紧随其经济增长 The Atlantic and Pacific coasts have long dominated immigration, but there appears to be some subtle changes in this picture. Most big coastal metro areas have logged steady but below average growth of their foreign-born populations, including New York, with a 3.67% increase. (Note that even with relatively slow growth in percentage terms, New York added a net 208,800 immigrants, more than the total foreign-born populations of any of the four fastest growers.)

在移民方面，大西洋沿岸和太平洋沿岸长期占主导地位，但这一情况正在发生一些微妙变化。多数沿海大都会区进入了外国出生人口稳定但低于平均水平的增长状态，包括纽约，其增速为3.67%。（值得一提的是，虽然纽约的相对增速较慢，但其净移民人数的增加仍然达到了208,800人，超过了四个增速最快地区中任何一个的国外出生人口总数。）

Some blue areas are doing much better in terms of growth rate, including Seattle (9 th ), Boston (11 th) and San Jose (15 th ). All tend to be expensive, but have done very well in the recovery, largely due to technology-related growth.

一些蓝色地区【译注： 蓝色是民主党的标志颜色 】在增长率上表现得好得多，包括西雅图（第9名），波士顿（第11名），圣何塞（第15名）。这些城市的生活成本都相对较高，但在经济复苏方面表现不错，这主要源自与科技相关的经济增长。

In contrast, some traditional immigrant hubs with weaker economies have lagged behind. Chicago’s foreign-born population increased 1.71%, less than half the national average. Los Angeles’ foreign born population ticked down 0.1% amid economic stagnation and rising housing prices. When it comes to immigration, it is the geography of opportunity that still prevails.

与此相反，一些经济表现不佳的传统移民聚集地则处在落后位置。芝加哥的国外出生人口增长了1.71%，低于全国平均水平的一半。洛杉矶的国外出生人口则由于经济停滞和房价攀升略微下降了0.1%。从移民角度来看，充满机遇的地方仍然更受欢迎。

（编辑：辉格@whigzhou）

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