海德沙龙

Sweden's Populist Surge 瑞典的民粹浪潮 作者：Daniel Pipes @ 2015-8-26

译者：沈沉（@你在何地-sxy）

校对：小册子（@昵称被抢的小册子）

来源： Washington Times ， http://www.danielpipes.org/16073/sweden-populist-surge N.B.: This text differs in minor ways from the Washington Times version.

注意：此处文本与《华盛顿时报》发表版稍有不同。

According to the most recent poll, the innocuously-named but ferociously anti-establishment Sweden Democrats ( Sverigedemokraterna or SD) has the largest support of any political party in Sweden. This news has potentially momentous implications not just for Sweden but for all Europe.

最近的民意调查显示，在瑞典各政治派别中，名称温和无害、但实际极端反建制的瑞典民主党（ Sverigedemokraterna 或SD）获得了最高的支持率。这一消息不仅对瑞典，而且对全欧洲都可能有着极为重大的喻意。 The Sweden Democrats logo with the slogan "Security & Tradition."

瑞典民主党的标志，图中口号是“安全与传统” Sweden is a special place. One of the richest and most peaceful countries in the world (it has not been engaged in armed conflict for two centuries), until recently it was a remarkably homogenous society where socialism, with its optimistic assumption that people are born good and circumstances make them bad, worked and the government enjoyed great prestige. Swedish pride in the country's accomplishments translates into an ethical superiority symbolized by the oft-heard claim to be a "moral superpower."

瑞典很是独特。它是世界上最富有、最平静的国家之一（已有两百年未卷入任何武装冲突）。直到不久以前，瑞典仍是一个极为同质的社会，政府声望卓著，社会主义制度行之有效，这一制度乐观地假定人性本善，后天学坏。瑞典人对国家的成就极为自豪，这种自豪还转变成为一种道德优越感，其象征就是他们经常自称的“道德超级大国”。

This heritage has also inspired an intolerance of dissent, however; "Be quiet, follow the consensus, let the bureaucrats carry it out." The country has become so notorious for its stifling faux-unanimity that I actually heard a Dane recently ask at a public forum , "Why has Sweden turned into the North Korea of Scandinavia?"

不过，这种传统也导致对异议的不宽容态度。“安静些，随大流，让官员们去做吧。”该国虚假的全民一致令人压抑，这一点早已臭名昭著，我最近还看到一个丹麦人在某公共论坛上问道：“为什么瑞典已经变成斯堪的纳维亚半岛的朝鲜？”

Also, Sweden's history creates a no-crisis mentality that militates against the hard-headed, flexible responses needed to cope with current problems the country now faces, especially those connected to waves of mainly Muslim immigrants. As one interlocutor put it to me in Stockholm earlier this month, "Past success has led to current failure." For example, security in Sweden is well below what might find in a country like Bolivia, with few inclinations to make improvements, rendering Islamist violence all but inevitable.

这个国家的历史还塑造了一种不识危机的心性，妨碍了它采取冷静而灵活的回应手段来解决目前所面临的问题，特别是那些跟以穆斯林为主体的移民潮有关的问题。就像是本月初有人在斯德哥尔摩对我说过的那样，“过往的成功导致了今日的失败。”比如，瑞典的安保水平远远不如玻利维亚这类国家，而且看不到什么改善的意愿，所以伊斯兰暴力活动几乎不可避免。

In this stultification, the SD stands out because it offers the only political alternative. Proof of this came in December 2014, when the SD appeared to have the swing vote in a crucial budget vote between the left and right blocs in the country's unicameral legislature, the Riksdag – until all the other seven parties joined together in a grand coalition to deny it any influence.

在这潭无澜死水之中，瑞典民主党因为提供了唯一的政治替代选项而一枝独秀。证据出现于2014年12月，当时该国一院制立法机关瑞典议会的左右两派正在举行一场关键的预算表决，而瑞典民主党似乎掌握了关键的游离选票，最终，其余全部七个党联合起来组成一个超级联盟，以阻止瑞典民主党发挥任何影响。

As this act of desperation suggests, the Sweden Democrats offer a populist – and not, as usually described, a " far right " – brew of policies anathema to all the legacy parties: Foremost, it calls for assimilating legal immigrants, expelling the illegals, and reducing future immigration by at least 90 percent. It also forwards a number of other policies (concerning crime, defense, the European Union, and Israel) far outside the Swedish consensus and utterly obnoxious to the other parties.

这种绝地挣扎的行为表明，瑞典民主党提出的民粹主义——并非通常所说的“极右”——系列政策，令所有老派政党极其生厌：最重要的是，它要求同化合法移民，驱逐非法移民，并将未来的移民数量削减至少90%。它提出的大量其它政策（涉及犯罪、国防、欧盟和以色列）都远远背离瑞典人的既有共识，对其余政党来说面目极为可憎。 A subway ad in Stockholm that illustrates the Sweden Democrats' messaging

斯德哥尔摩地铁站展示瑞典民主党立场的广告 With good reason, the establishment hates and fears the SD, pedantically finding any possible fault with the party, starting with its alleged neo-fascist past (though fascist connections are not unique to SD ) and going on to the tiniest foibles of its leadership.

主流当权派理所当然对瑞典民主党既仇视又恐惧，吹毛求疵地寻找该党的错误，开始是拿它过去被指是新法西斯主义说事（尽管并非只有瑞典民主党才跟法西斯主义有关联），然后发展到挑剔其领导人的小毛病。

Supporting the SD remains taboo. The national police commissioner once tweeted about "vomiting" on seeing the SD's leader; naturally, his staff dare not acknowledge their supporting for the party. But one officer estimated for me that 50 percent of the police vote SD.

支持瑞典民主党如今仍属禁忌。国家警察总监曾发表一条推文，称其因为遇到了瑞典民主党领导人而“作呕”；他的下属自然不敢承认支持该党。不过曾有警官跟我说，估计50%的警察把票投给了瑞典民主党。 The future national police chief's tweet about vomiting in response to the Sweden Democrats' leader.

未来的全国警察首脑关于他因瑞典民主党领导人而作呕的推文。 Despite being ostracized, the SD increasingly connects with Swedes (including some immigrants ), giving it substantial electoral gains, roughly doubling its parliamentary vote every four years: from 0.4 percent in 1998 to 1.3 percent in 2002, 2.9 percent in 2006, 5.7 percent in 2010, and 12.9 percent in September 2014. And now, less than a year later, a YouGov poll shows it having nearly doubled again, to 25.2 percent, meaning that it leads the governing Social Democrats (who have only 23.4 percent support) and the major (nominally) right-wing party, the Moderates (with 21 percent).

尽管遭到排斥，但是瑞典民主党与瑞典人（包括部分移民）之间的呼应越来越紧密，因而收获了大量选票。它在议会选举中得到的选票大约每四年翻一倍：从1998年的0.4%到2002年的1.3%，2006年的2.9%，2010年的5.7%，再到2014年的12.9%。而现在，才过了不到一年，YouGov的一项民意调查显示这个数字又翻了将近一倍，到了25.2%，这意味着它已领先于执政的社会民主党（支持率仅23.4%）和主要的（有名无实的）右翼政党温和党（支持率21%）。

No less important, I learned in Stockholm, the intellectual and political climate has shifted. Journalists, policy specialists, and politicians all noted that ideas outside the mainstream just a year ago now receive a hearing. For example, four major newspapers have questioned the consensus in favor of high immigration.

同样重要的是，我在斯德哥尔摩发现，思想和政治气氛已然发生转变。记者、政策专家和政治家们都注意到，仅仅一年前都还处于主流之外的一些观念如今已有人倾听。比如，四家主要报纸已针对支持接纳大量移民的共识提出质疑。

Beside the surging SD vote, this shift results from several factors: the shocking rise of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS), which has altered the debate; continued upset at the December compact that excluded the SD from having its due parliamentary influence; and the receding memory of Anders Behring Breivik's 2011 murderous rampage in Norway.

除了瑞典民主党得票激增之外，这种转变还源于几个其它因素：伊斯兰国（ISIS）的惊人崛起，扭转了争论的态势；对去年12月阻止瑞典民主党在议会发挥其应有影响力的联合行动持续失望；对安德斯·贝林·布雷维克2011年在挪威制造残忍屠杀的记忆不断消退【 译注：布雷维克是新纳粹分子 】。

In all, it appears that denial and censorship can only continue for so long before the instinct of self-preservation kicks in. The Western country most prone to national suicide is possibly waking up from its stupor. If this change can take place in Sweden, the "North Korea of Scandinavia," it can, and likely will, occur elsewhere in Europe.

总而言之，一旦自我保护的本能开始起作用，看来排拒和审查就难以继续。这个最有可能走向“国家自杀”【 译注：指以大量接纳异文化特别是伊斯兰文化移民并不加同化为政治正确 】的西方国家可能正从麻木中醒来。如果这种变化可以发生在瑞典这个“斯堪的纳维亚半岛的朝鲜”，那么它就同样可以，而且很可能，出现在欧洲其它地方。

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