海德沙龙

No Economic Mess in Texas 德州经济安然无恙 作者：WSJ @ 2015-7-22

译者：赵鲲

校对：晓舸 (@ShawXG)

来源：《华尔街日报》（ Wall Street Journay ）， http://www.wsj.com/articles/no-economic-mess-in-texas-1437433836 Oil prices collapse but the Lone Star State keeps creating jobs. 油价崩溃并未阻止孤星州持续创造就业机会 A funny thing has happened to the economic miracle in Texas that liberals predicted would go bust along with oil prices. America’s foremost state job creator of the past decade continues to produce opportunity and employment. 有趣的是，虽然自由派一直在预测“德州奇迹”将随油价崩溃而破产，但这个过去十年美国创造就业最多的州仍在持续创造着就业和经济机遇。 Last week’s “beige book” release from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas shows that despite the struggling oil and gas industry, the Texas economy is still enjoying moderate growth. Since prices in the oil patch began sliding a year ago, pundits on the political left have been waiting for evidence to declare the Texas model a failure. They’re still waiting. 上周达拉斯联邦储备银行发布的褐皮书显示，虽然石油和天然气行业举步维艰，德州经济却仍然在以温和的速度增长。自从去年油价开始暴跌以来，那些左翼评论员们就一直在等待着能证实“德州模式”失败的证据出现。但直到现在，他们仍然没有等到。 Last month the federal Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that in 2014 the Texas economy grew by a sizzling 5.2%, second fastest in the country after North Dakota’s 6.3% and more than twice the U.S. average. That followed 5.5% growth in 2013 and 6.2% in 2012. And 2014 was the year oil prices fell to $53 a barrel in December from more than $107 in June. The Texas rig count in May was down 58% from a year ago. 上月联邦经济分析局发布的报告显示，德州经济在2014年度表现良好，增长率达到5.2%，在全美仅次于北达科他州6.2%排名第二，超过全美平均水平的两倍。在之前的2013和2012年度，德州的增长率分别为5.5%和6.2%。值得一提的是，油价已从2014年6月的每桶超过107美元跌至了12月的每桶53美元。而今年5月德州运转中的钻机数量相比一年前下降了58%。 Liberal Governors, tired of looking bad next to Texas, may have hoped to catch a break as the full impact of cheap oil hit the Lone Star State in 2015. And Texas is creating jobs more slowly this year—1.1% growth through May versus 3.6% in the same period last year. Lower-paying positions in hospitality have substituted for higher-paying energy jobs. 受够了被德州比得很难看的自由派州长们，也许希望当低油价的影响在2015年全面冲击“孤星州”时，他们能够缓口气。德州今年创造就业的速度的确在放缓——整个5月工作岗位仅仅增长了1.1%，而去年同期这个数字则是3.6%。低工资的酒店服务业岗位填补了高工资的能源行业岗位消失所带来的空缺。 But the overall economic resilience is a far cry from the Texas recessions that followed previous oil busts. Unemployment in the state, 4.3% in May, was still well below the national average of 5.5% that month. 但是相比之前的几次油价暴跌之后德州所经历的经济衰退，这次油价下跌中经济的整体韧性已经强得多了。德州在5月的失业率是4.3%，这个数字仍要比全美 5.5% 的平均水平低了不少。 Some credit goes to the foresight of energy companies that made themselves less vulnerable with better balance sheets. In a report specifically focused on the energy capital of Houston, the Dallas Fed notes recent improvement in job growth and says that “refining, petrochemicals and service industries are managing to offset oil-producer woes.” Statewide, education and health services employment has also been strong. 一些有远见的能源企业提前储备了资金，他们通过改善资产负债表使自己变得更健壮。在一份特别关注能源之都休斯顿的报告中，达拉斯联储提到了最近就业增长的改善，该报告指出，“炼油，石化和服务业的增长基本抵消了原油开采行业下滑所带来的问题。”在全州范围内，教育和医疗产业的就业势头也同样强劲。 Meanwhile in Austin, which has little exposure to the energy industry, business other than government is booming. May job growth surged at an annual rate of 6.6%, including “a significant increase in high-paying scientific and technical services jobs.” Texas is now America’s top technology exporter, surpassing long-time leader California. 同时在与能源行业几乎没有什么联系的奥斯汀，政府服务之外的经济正在蓬勃发展。奥斯汀5月的就业增长率飙升到了年化6.6%的水平，其中还包括“高收入的科技服务领域内就业机会的显著增长。”德州现已成为了全美第一大的技术输出州，超越了长期以来一直领先的加州。 Imagine how the economy of Washington, D.C. would suffer and how high the local unemployment rate would soar if government spending fell by half in less than a year. But Texas is mainly in the business of wealth creation, not redistribution. 设想一下，如果政府开支在一年之内缩减一半，华盛顿特区的经济将会遭受多大的打击，当地的失业率又将会飙升到什么样的水平。但是德州经济主要依赖的是财富创造，而不是财富再分配。 The Texas strategy of avoiding burdensome taxation and regulation has attracted a variety of businesses across many industries that have diversified the state economy. Texas still has no personal or corporate income tax. New Gov. Greg Abbott has been annoying the left even more by taking a hatchet to business franchise and property levies. He recently signed into law tax cuts amounting to $4 billion over two years despite the reduced flow of revenue due to falling oil production. This is the opposite of the tax-raising strategy pursued by Illinois, Connecticut, Maryland and New York when revenues decline. 德州尽可能减少繁重的税收和管制的经济策略吸引了横跨多个行业的多种类型的企业，这让德州经济变得更加多元化。德州至今仍然没有个人和公司所得税。新任州长Greg Abbott进一步削减了特许经营权税和财产税，这一举措让左派感到更加气恼。虽然政府收入因为油价的下跌已经在减少，但他最近还是签署了一项在两年内减税40亿美元的计划。这与伊利诺伊，康涅狄格，马里兰和纽约等州在收入下降时采取的加税措施完全背道而驰。 The Texas Governor was in New York urging more businesses to consider moving south and west. And while service businesses of many types are currently growing in Texas, don’t expect energy and related manufacturing to stay down forever. Mr. Abbott says that “we are on the cusp of once again transforming the energy world” with new Gulf Coast terminals for exporting liquefied natural gas. 这位德州州长曾在纽约呼吁更多的企业考虑搬到地处西南部的德州。各种类型的服务业企业正在德州茁壮成长，同时也不要以为能源以及与之相关的制造业会一直处于低迷状态。Abott先生表示，随着用于出口液化天然气的新终端在墨西哥湾沿岸建成投产，“我们再一次站在了改变能源世界的前沿”。 Economic dependence on commodity prices can be a boom and bust proposition, as Canada’s Alberta province and Australia are experiencing. But the resilience in Texas is proving again that limiting government is an economic growth strategy for all seasons. 依赖大宗商品价格的经济体是可能面临繁荣-衰退循环，这正是加拿大阿尔伯塔省和澳大利亚所正在经历的。但德州经济所表现出来的韧性，则又一次证明了，限制政府规模是一种在各种经济环境下都能促进增长的策略。 （编辑：辉格@whigzhou） *注：本译文未经原作者授权，本站对原文不持有也不主张任何权利，如果你恰好对原文拥有权益并希望我们移除相关内容，请私信联系，我们会立即作出响应。 ——海德沙龙·翻译组，致力于将英文世界的好文章搬进中文世界——