海德沙龙

Are Aussie housing regulations the dumbest rules on Earth? 澳洲的房屋管制是否是世界上最愚蠢的规定？ 作者：Scott Sumner @ 2015-6-7

译者：混乱阈值 （@混乱阈值）

校对：小册子（@昵称被抢的小册子）沈沉（@你在何地-sxy）

来源：TheMoneyIllusion， http://www.themoneyillusion.com/?p=29551 Commenter Colin Docherty sent me an article on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s counterproductive attempt to hold down house prices with tight money:

评论员Colin Docherty发给我一篇关于澳大利亚储备银行试图用紧缩银根这种适得其反的手段来抑制房价的文章：【 译注：作者收到的文章地址http://www.afr.com/real-estate/residential/housing-bubble-compels-rba-to-hold-rates-at-225pc-20150407-1mfyvh 】 The Reserve Bank of Australia’s surprise decision to defer its widely anticipated April rate cut for at least another month might have been influenced by the increasingly pricey housing market, which it regards as posing a real “dilemma”.

外界普遍预期澳大利亚储备银行将在四月份降息，但其却出人意料地决定将降息往后推迟至少一个月。此举可能是受了房价日趋上扬的影响。在储备银行看来，房价的不断上涨让他们陷入了真正的“两难处境”。

According to UBS, in March the ratio of Australian dwelling prices-to-disposable household incomes equalled – and is presently surpassing – the previous record of 5.3 times set back in September 2003. And they predict it will climb further.

根据瑞士联合银行（UBS）给出的数据，三月份澳洲的住房价格与可支配家庭收入比已经追平——并且正在赶超——2003年9月创下的5.3倍的纪录。而且上升势头可能还会持续。 As a result, Aussie inflation is now sliding far below the 2.5% target, and unemployment has been climbing. This is the same policy the Fed tried in 1929. This is the same policy the Riksbank tried in 2010.  Do central bankers ever learn?

结果，澳洲目前通胀率远低于2.5%的目标，而失业率则一直在攀升。同样的经济政策，美联储（Fed）在1929年就用过了，瑞典中央银行（Riksbank）在2010年也用过了。中央银行的银行家们就不会吸取教训吗？

Back in 2009 I ridiculed the idea of bubbles by pointing out that while all the English speaking countries had seen huge house price surges in the early 2000s, only the US and Ireland saw a crash.  Australian prices were particularly robust. But despite the bubblemongers being wrong about these countries, they continued to insist it was all a bubble.

2009年时我就嘲笑过那些认为房市存在泡沫的观点，那时我指出，尽管在本世纪头几年所有英语国家的房价都迅猛上涨，但只有美国和爱尔兰的房市出现了崩盘。而澳大利亚的房价尤其坚挺。尽管那些泡沫论贩子对这些国家的房市判断出错，他们依然坚持房地产市场全是泡沫。

OK, I can sort of understand how people could make that mistake in 2009. But now, six years later, Australian house prices are still up at the same lofty levels.  Is the term “bubble” now so elastic that it can fit a house price boom that’s occupied virtually the entire 21st century?

好吧，人们在2009年犯错还算情有可原。然而六年后的今天，澳大利亚的房价依然处在同样的高位。如果整个21世纪至今几乎一直在延续的房价上涨还能叫做是“泡沫”，那“泡沫”这个词的弹性也太大了吧？

How about if prices are still high in 2020—will it still be a bubble?  How about 2030?  How about 2050? Of course the bubblemongers will refuse to answer these questions because like soothsayers they always want an “out” if their predictions fail.  They always want to be able to say; “You just wait and see.”

如果房价在2020年依旧很高，还是泡沫吗？2030年呢？2050年呢？当然这些泡沫论贩子会拒绝回答这些问题，因为他们就像算命先生那样，总能为自己失败的预言找到托词。他们永远会说：“你等着瞧好了。”

And how about those people who said Bitcoin was a bubble at $25?  I’m will to buy coins from you guys at twice the price you said was a bubble back then.

那么那些在比特币价值25美元的时候说出现了泡沫的人怎么样了？我愿意用当初你们说是泡沫的价格的两倍跟你们购买比特币。

I still haven’t gotten to the dumbest policy on Earth.  Australia is the size of the continental US, with a population smaller than Texas.  Like Texans, Aussies should be able to afford comfortable single-family homes.  But in the right column of the article linked to above, I see links for these articles:

目前为止我还没说到地球上最愚蠢的政策呢。澳大利亚的国土面积和美国本土一样大，人口比德克萨斯州还少。和德州人一样，澳洲人应该能够买得起舒适的独户住宅。然而就在前面提到的文章的右边栏上，我看到了以下这些文章的链接： Australia becoming a nation of landlords 澳大利亚成了地主的国家 http://www.afr.com/real-estate/residential/australia-becoming-a-nation-of-landlords-20150605-ghhjpi Melbourne developer experiments with micro-apartments, sliding walls 墨尔本的房屋开发商尝试建造带滑动墙的微型公寓 http://www.afr.com/real-estate/residential/sliding-walls-tiny-apartments-and-how-to-solve-the-housing-shortage-20150605-ghgfmz I can visualize microapartments in Hong Kong, but Australia? Are the zoning regulators there sadists?  What would cause an otherwise sensible country to have such insane housing rules that Sydney would end up with some of the highest land prices on Earth?

我能想象香港的微型公寓，但在澳洲建造微型公寓？澳洲土地规划者是施虐狂吗？是什么让这个本来理智的国家有如此疯狂的房屋规定，以致于悉尼要跻身世界上地价最贵的城市之一？

Milton Friedman said:

米尔顿·弗里德曼说过： If you put the federal government in charge of the Sahara Desert, in 5 years there’d be a shortage of sand.

如果你让联邦政府负责管理撒哈拉沙漠，五年之内沙子就会短缺。 Well the Australian government was put in charge of land use in a country the size of the Sahara, and now they have microapartments.

好吧，人们让澳洲政府负责管理面积相当于撒哈拉沙漠的土地使用，于是现在就有了微型公寓。

I’m begging regulators there to make me look like a fool.  Pop that nonexistent housing bubble by changing the fundamentals.  Give landowners the freedom to build, like they have in Germany.  Please, make me look like a fool.

我倒是希望澳洲的监管者们能让我看起来像个笨蛋。通过改变经济基本因素来戳破那根本不存在的房市泡沫吧。像德国那样给予土地所有者建造房屋的自由吧。拜托了，让我看起来像个笨蛋吧。

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