海德沙龙

Obama’s shameful Afghanistan retreat: This will embolden the Taliban, Al Qaeda and ISIS 奥巴马撤离阿富汗之举很可耻：这会鼓励塔利班、基地组织和伊斯兰国 作者： Frederick Kagan @ 2015-10-18

译者：沈沉（@你在何地-sxy）

校对：Whig zhou（@whigzhou）

来源：NEW YORK DAILY NEWS， http://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/frederick-kagan-obama-shameful-afghanistan-retreat-article-1.2400776 The headlines should read: “Obama to slash U.S. troops in Afghanistan by over 40% weeks before he hands over responsibility to a new President.” Instead they say: “Obama extends U.S. military presence in Afghanistan.” Talk about controlling the narrative.

新闻头条应该这么写：“在向新总统移交责任数周前，奥巴马将削减驻阿美军40%以上”。但实际上它们是这么写的：“奥巴马延长美军驻阿时间。”看看什么叫做控制叙事方式。

We’re missing the plot here. The President announced on Thursday the most irresponsible decision he could have made about Afghanistan — second only to the promise he had made earlier to pull almost all U.S. troops. The right decision would have been to keep forces at current levels, or, better, send reinforcements.

我们错过了重点情节。总统本周四宣布了他在阿富汗问题上可能做出的最不负责任的决定——仅次于他此前做出的撤离全部美军的承诺。正确的决定应当是，保持当前的驻军水平，最好是能增加援军。

For we are losing in Afghanistan, again. Security is deteriorating. The Taliban seized and briefly held the capital of an important province north of Kabul. They are threatening another one a short drive southwest of Kabul. U.S. forces destroyed two Al Qaeda training camps in Kandahar, one very large. The Islamic State controls part of Nangarhar Province, east of Kabul. Afghan security forces cannot hold what they have, let alone regain what they have lost.

因为，又一次，我们正在失去阿富汗。安全形势正在恶化。塔利班攻占并短暂占据了喀布尔以北一个重要省份的首府。他们现在还对喀布尔以南车程很近的另外一座首府构成威胁。美军摧毁了基地组织位于坎大哈的两座训练营，其中一座非常之大。伊斯兰国控制了喀布尔以东楠格哈尔省的部分地区。阿富汗安全部队根本守不住他们的地盘，更别说收复失地。

The Taliban had been driven out of almost all the important areas in southern Afghanistan and disrupted elsewhere by the additional forces Obama sent in 2010. The premature reduction of American and allied troops and the operational restrictions imposed on the remaining troops have let the Taliban rebuild.

由于奥巴马在2010年派出增援部队，塔利班曾被赶出阿富汗南部的几乎所有重要区域，在其它地区也遭到破坏。但过早的削减美军及联军部队，并对留守部队施加行动限制，已经让塔利班得以重建。

A couple of years ago the Taliban would not have dared mass forces for an offensive against a major city, because American airpower supporting U.S. and Afghan troops would have decimated them. No more. Now the enemy masses and maneuvers as they did from 2006 to 2009, when they nearly toppled the Afghan government.

数年之前，塔利班根本不敢集结力量攻打任何主要城市，因为支援美军和阿富汗部队的美国空军会将其加以摧毁。现在不再如此了。如今，敌人像他们在2006年至2009年期间那样集结和运动，当时他们差点推翻了阿富汗政府。

A limited number of American forces with the right authorities could prevent them from doing that. But Obama has chosen to allow the Taliban the freedom of action to threaten the survival of the Afghan state once again.

有限数量的美军，如果具有正确的权限，也可以阻止敌人这么做。但奥巴马所做的选择，给了塔利班再次威胁阿富汗政权生存的行动自由。

American forces with Afghan partners drove Al Qaeda almost entirely out of Afghanistan in 2002. U.S., Afghan and allied troops kept them out for a decade — the one enduring success against Al Qaeda President Obama had maintained.

2002年，美军联同阿富汗盟友几乎已将基地组织完全赶出阿富汗。美国、阿富汗和联军部队连续十年将它们拒之门外——这是奥巴马总统对基地组织取得的唯一持久成功。

Now they’re back. The President has thus put in danger even the most limited of the goals he had identified in Afghanistan.

如今他们又回来了。因此，甚至是总统在阿富汗定下的最有限目标，都已被他自己置于摇摇欲坠之地。

The emergence of fighters loyal to the Islamic State in Afghanistan is even more disturbing. The vast majority of them are local insurgents who had been fighting under other banners, so it’s not as if new forces have invaded Afghanistan. But the ISIS brand is much more virulent , violent and extreme even than al Qaeda. It makes the Taliban look moderate.

更令人忧心的是，效忠伊斯兰国的战士也出现于阿富汗。他们中的绝大多数都是当地的叛乱者，此前一直在其他旗帜下战斗，因此并不是说有新的力量入侵阿富汗了。但伊斯兰国的标签更为恶性、更为暴力、更为极端，甚至连基地组织都相形见绌。塔利班看起来都是温和派了。

That such a group has drawn Afghans under its banner is proof of the failure of U.S. efforts against ISIS broadly. Success attracts followers. ISIS will likely radicalize those followers even further, while preparing to unleash greater violence against Afghan forces and U.S. troops. That will be further proof to potential recruits of its success and power, encouraging radicals elsewhere to join ISIS. It is a disaster in every respect.

这一组织已将阿富汗人吸引到其旗帜之下，这是美军全面打击伊斯兰国之努力遭遇失败的明证。成功才能吸引追随者。伊斯兰国很有可能将会使这些追随者进一步激进化，同时准备对阿富汗武装力量和美军部队发动更大规模的暴力活动。而这将进一步向其潜在追随者提供成功与力量的证据，鼓励其他地方的激进分子参加伊斯兰国。方方面面来看，这都是灾难性的。

The Afghan security forces, meanwhile, are suffering badly. Losses and desertion rates are too high. They lack the equipment to prosecute a modern war against a serious enemy. We built those forces on the assumption that the U.S. and its allies would continue to provide meaningful and reliable air support, help with logistics, planning and intelligence and more. As we have withdrawn that support, they have faltered.

与此同时，阿富汗安全部队正在遭受巨大损失。伤亡率和逃兵率居高不下。他们缺乏装备，没法与可怕的敌人开展一场现代战争。我们建立这些部队时曾假定，美国及其盟友会持续提供有意义的、可靠的空中支援，并在后勤、部署和情报及其他方面给予帮助。随着我们撤销这类支援，他们就变得力不从心。

All this was both predictable and avoidable. The President was warned that he had announced too aggressive a drawdown plan in 2009. He disdained recommendations to keep 20,000 or 30,000 troops in place after the drawdown. He is once again disregarding advice to maintain the current — inadequate — force level in favor of scheduling yet another unjustifiable withdrawal.

所有这些都既可以预测，也可以避免。2009年，已经有人警告总统，他宣布的撤军计划过于激进。他无视了在撤军之后保持20000或30000驻军的建议。现在，他又一次无视了保持当前——尚不足够——驻军数量的建议，而支持新一轮毫无依据的撤军计划。

All Presidents make mistakes. Most come to recognize and learn from them. Others double down. In this case, doubling down on retreat is doubling down on failure.

所有的总统都会犯错。他们中大多数都会承认错误并吸取教训。其他人则加倍下注。在当前例子中，在撤军上面加倍下注就是在加倍失败。

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