In House Testimony, Botkin Dismantles the IPCC 2014 Report Botkin 在众院听证中推翻了IPCC 2014年度报告 作者：Daniel B. Botkin @ 2014-5-31

译者：陈小乖（@lion_kittyyyyy)

校对：Eartha（@王小贰_Eartha），二校：沈沉（@你在何地-sxy）

来源：Anthony Watts的博客（Watts Up With That?）, http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/05/31/in-house-testimony-botkin-dismantles-the-ipcc-2014-report/ Policycritic writes: You need to read this, Anthony. He dismantles the IPCC 2014 report for Congress . Policycritic写道：Anthony你得读读这个。他推翻了政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）提交给国会的2014年度报告。

Botkin’s bio: “Daniel B. Botkin, a world-renowned ecologist, is Professor (Emeritus), Department of Ecology, Evolution and Marine Biology, UC Santa Barbara, and President of The Center for The Study of The Environment, which provides independent, science-based analyses of complex environmental issues. The New York Times said his book, Discordant Harmonies: A New Ecology for the 21st Century is considered by many ecologists to be the classic text of the [environmental] movement.” His Environmental Science, now in its Sixth Edition, was named 2004′s best textbook by the Textbook and Academic Authors Association.” Botkin的简历：

“Daniel B. Botkin是一位享誉世界的生态学家，也是加利福尼亚大学圣塔芭芭拉分校生态、进化和海洋生物学系荣休教授兼环境研究中心主任，该机构对复杂的环境问题进行独立的、基于科学的研究。《纽约时报》称，‘他的著作《不谐和的和谐：二十一世纪新生态学》被众多生态学家认可为环保运动经典教科书。’他的《环境科学》一书目前已出到第六版，该书曾被教科书及学术作家协会评选为２００４年度最佳教科书。”

Indeed, and I’ve made the full written testimony available, plus a video showing Rep. Joe Kennedy (D-MA) poses questions to the witness panel at the Full Committee hearing titled, “Examining the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Process.” where he grills Daniel B. Botkin with idiotic questions like: ‘Doctor, do you look both ways before you cross the street?’ 我找到了Botkin的书面证词全文，还有一段众议员Joe Kennedy（民主党，马塞诸塞州）的一个视频，内容是在主题为“审查联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会的工作进程”的全体委员会听证会上，对证人小组作出的提问。听证会上，Joe用诸如“博士，您过马路前两边都需要看吗？”等愚蠢问题刁难Daniel B. Botkin。 WRITTEN TESTIMONY TO THE HOUSE SUBCOMMITTEE ON SCIENCE, SPACE, AND TECHNOLOGY. MAY 29, 2014 致众议院小组委员会关于科学、太空和技术的书面证词 DANIEL B. BOTKIN 证人： Daniel B. Botkin Since 1968 I have published research on theoretical global warming, its potential ecological effects, and the implications for people and biodiversity. I have spent my career trying to help conserve our environment and its great diversity of species. In doing so I have always attempted to maintain an objective, intellectually honest, scientific approach in the best tradition of scientific endeavor.

1968年至今，我发表的学术论文涉及全球变暖的理论问题、它的潜在生态效应，以及对人类和生物多样性的影响。我的整个职业生涯都致力于保护我们的环境及其丰富的物种多样性。为此，我一直努力尝试继承科学事业的优良传统，坚守一种客观的、智识诚实的和科学的工作方法。

I have, accordingly, been dismayed and disappointed in recent years that this subject has been converted into a political and ideological debate. I have colleagues on both sides of the debate and believe we should work together as scientists instead of arguing divisively about preconceived, emotionally based “positions.”

因此，近几年，我对这个话题已被转变为一场政治和意识形态的辩论而倍感沮丧和失望。辩论双方都有我的同事，我坚信我们应当作为科学家共同努力，而不该为了先入为主的、基于情绪的“站队”互相争论。

I hope my testifying here will help lead to a calmer, more rational approach to dealing with not only climate change but also other major environmental problems. The IPCC 2014 report does not have this kind of rational discussion we should be having. I would like to tell you why.

我希望此次作证能有助于开启一条更平和、更理性的进路，以便应对包括但不仅限于气候变化的重大环境问题。IPCC 2014年度报告不具备这种我们本应有的理性讨论。我想告诉你为什么。

The IPCC 2014 report is actually a series of reports, each long, complex in organization, and extensive in scope. Since it’s not possible to discuss the Summary Reports for Policymakers in detail today, I will highlight some of my thoughts for you here as they relate to the reports, hoping to bring a saner, more sober approach to this highly charged issue.

IPCC 2014年度报告实际上是一系列报告的集结。这些报告每一篇都结构复杂，篇幅冗长，涉猎广泛。因为今天不可能就其中《决策者参考摘要》进行详细讨论，所以我将着重谈谈我与这些报告有关的一些想法。希望它们能给这个极具争议的话题带来更理智、更冷静的处理方法。

To characterize where we are with this report and this issue, I would like to quote James R. Schlesinger, the first U.S. Energy Secretary, who said: “We have only two modes — complacency and panic.” —commenting on the country’s approach to energy (1977)

为了描述我们在这份报告以及这个问题上的处境，我想引用美国首任能源部长James R. Schlesinger于1977年就美国能源政策所做的评论，他说：“我们只有两种状态——怡然自得和惊慌失措。”

Now to my major points.

现在来谈谈我的主要观点。 1.I want to state up front that we have been living through a warming trend driven by a variety of influences . However, it is my view that this is not unusual, and contrary to the characterizations by the IPCC and the National Climate Assessment, these environmental changes are not apocalyptic nor irreversible. 1.我想声明在先，我们一直在经历由各种因素导致的变暖趋势。 然而，我认为这并非异常，与IPCC及《国家气候评估》的描述恰恰相反，这些环境变化既不会带来世界末日也不是不可逆转的。 2.My biggest concern is that both the reports present a number of speculative, and sometimes incomplete, conclusions embedded in language that gives them more scientific heft than they deserve. The reports are “scientific-sounding” rather than based on clearly settled facts or admitting their lack. Established facts about the global environment exist less often in science than laymen usually think. 2.我最担忧的是，这两份报告都展示了一系列推测性的结论，有时候还并不完备，但经过语言修饰后却具有了名不副实的科学份量。 他们只是“听上去科学”，并非基于真实确定的事实，或者没有承认这一点。在全球环境问题上， 科学界公认的既定事实远比外行通常认为的少。 3.HAS IT BEEN WARMING? Yes, we have been living through a warming trend, no doubt about that . The rate of change we are experiencing is also not unprecedented, and the “mystery” of the warming “plateau” simply indicates the inherent complexity of our global biosphere. Change is normal, life on Earth is inherently risky; it always has been. The two reports, however, makes it seem that environmental change is apocalyptic and irreversible. It is not. 3.一直在变暖吗？是的，我们一直在经历变暖的趋势，这一点毫无疑问。 我们正在经历的升温速度也并非史无前例，持续变暖期的“神秘性”仅仅表明，全球生物圈具有内在的复杂性。变化是正常现象，地球上的生命从诞生之初就一直面临危险。然而，这两份报告令环境变化看起来像是末日灾难，并且无法逆转，可事实并非如此。 4.IS CLIMATE CHANGE VERY UNUSUAL? No, it has always undergone changes. 环境变化是极其异常的现象吗？不是的，环境一直在经历变化。 5.ARE GREENHOUSE GASES INCREASING? Yes, CO2 rapidly. 5.温室气体在增加吗？是的，二氧化碳浓度正快速上升。 6.IS THERE GOOD SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH ON CLIMATE CHANGE?Yes, a great deal of it. 6.关于气候变化，有优秀的科学研究吗？有，有很多。 7.ARE THERE GOOD SCIENTISTS INVOLVED IN THE IPCC 2014 REPORT? Yes, the lead author of the Terrestrial (land) Ecosystem Report is Richard Betts, a coauthor of one my scientific papers about forecasting effects of global warming on biodiversity. 7.有优秀的科学家参与到IPCC 2014年度报告中吗？ 有，例如陆地生态系统报告的主要作者Richard Betts，他是我的一篇关于预测全球变暖对生物多样性的影响的科学论文的共同作者。 8.ARE THERE SCIENTIFICALLY ACCURATE STATEMENTS AT PLACES IN THE REPORT? Yes, there are. 8.在报告中是否有科学、精确的表述呢？有。 9.What I sought to learn was the overall take-away that the reports leave with a reader. I regret to say that I was left with the impression that the reports overestimate the danger from human-induced climate change and do not contribute to our ability to solve major environmental problems. I am afraid that an “agenda” permeates the reports, an implication that humans and our activity are necessarily bad and ought to be curtailed. 9.我试图罗列读者能从这些报告中得到哪些有用的信息。 遗憾的是，这些报告留给我的印象是：过分强调人为因素引起的气候变化的危险性，而对我们解决重大环境问题毫无贡献。恐怕报告前前后后都渗透了一个“意图”：一种关于人类及其活动必然有害、必须加以削减的暗示。 10.ARE THERE MAJOR PROBLEMS WITH THE REPORTS? Yes, in assumptions, use of data, and conclusions. 10.报告中是否存在重大缺陷？是，在提出假设、数据使用、以及结论部分，都存在问题。 11.My biggest concern about the reports is that they present a number of speculative, and sometimes incomplete, conclusions embedded in language that gives them more scientific heft than they deserve. The reports, in other words, are “scientific- sounding,” rather than clearly settled and based on indisputable facts. Established facts about the global environment exist less often in science than laymen usually think. 11.我最担忧的是，这两份报告中都展示了一系列推测性的结论，有时候还并不完备，但经过语言修饰后，却具有了名不副实的科学份量。 他们只是“听上去科学”，并非基于真实确定的事实，或者没有承认这一点。在全球环境问题上， 科学界公认的既定事实远比外行通常认为的少。【 译注：此条似与第二条重复，原文如此 】 12.The two reports assume and/or argue that the climate warmingforecast by the global climate models is happening and will continueto happen and grow worse. Currently these predictions are way off the reality (Figure 1) . Models, like all scientific theory, have to be tested against real-world observations. Experts in model validation say that the climate models frequently cited in the IPCC report are little if any validated. This means that as theory they are fundamentally scientifically unproven. 12.这两份报告或假设或肯定地表示，全球气候模型所作的气候变暖预测正一步步变成现实，并将一直持续，越来越糟。目前，这些预测都远远脱离现实 （图一）。和所有的科学理论一样，模型需要通过对照现实观测进行检验。模型验证领域的专家说，IPCC报告频繁引用的气候模型极少通过了验证。这意味着作为理论他们根本未经科学证实。 Figure 1: Climate model forecasts compared to real worldtemperature observations (From John Christy, University of Alabama and Alabama State Climatologist. Reproduced with permission from him.) 图一：气候模型预测结果与真实气温观测数据对比 （来自John Christy,阿拉巴马大学、阿拉巴马州气候学家，经许可转载）

【图一】 13.The reports suffers from the use term “climate change” with two meanings: natural and human-induced. These are both given as definitions in the IPCC report and are not distinguished in the text and therefore confuse a reader. (The Climate Change Assessment uses the term throughout including its title, but never defines it.) There are places in the reports where only the second meaning—human induced—makes sense, so that meaning has to be assumed. There are other places where either meaning could be applied. 13. 这些报告因混淆了“气候变化”的两层含义而变得更糟，气候变化可以自然发生，也可以因人类活动而起。IPCC报告为两者都给出了定义，但在行文中却并未明确区分，并因此而迷惑了读者。 （《气候变化评估》中随处可见“气候变化”一词，包括报告标题，但从未明言它是哪一种。）报告中的一些地方，只有按照第二层含义——人类活动引起的气候变化，才能让人看懂，此时，我们不得不假定作者采用了这层含义。而在另一些地方，这两种含义由都对得上。

In those places where either meaning can be interpreted, if the statement is assumed to be a natural change, then it is a truism, a basic characteristic of Earth’s environment and something people have always know and experienced. If the meaning is taken to be human-caused, then in spite of the assertions in the report, the available data do not support the statements.

在那些两种含义均可的地方，如果该陈述被假定为一种自然现象，那这便是不言而喻的老调，是地球环境的基本特征，是人们早已了解并不断经历着的。而假如它指的是人类导致的暖化，那么尽管报告言之凿凿，现有数据却并不支持这些陈述。 14.Some of the reports conclusions are the opposite of those given in articles cited in defense of those conclusions. For example, the IPCC 2014 Terrestrial Ecosystem Report states that “there is medium confidence that rapid change in the Arctic is affecting its animals. For example, seven of 19 subpopulations of the polar bear are declining in number” citing in support of this an article by Vongraven and Richardson, 2011. That report states the contrary, that the “‘decline’ is an illusion. 14. 报告的部分结论与其所引用作为证据的文章给出的结论恰恰相反。 例如，IPCC 2014陆地生态系统报告说：“北极的快速（气候）变化正影响着当地动物，这一论断具有中等可信度。比如，北极熊的19个亚种群中，有7个数量正在减少。”这一陈述引用了Vongraven和Richardson于2011年发表的一篇文章作为支撑。但原文所传达的信息与IPCC的报告恰好相反，他们认为“减少”是一种错觉。

In addition, I have sought the available counts of the 19 subpopulations. Of these, only three have been counted twice; the rest have been counted once. Thus no rate of changes in the populations can be determined. The first count was done 1986 for one subpopulation.

此外，我找到了这19个北极熊亚种群的可用数据。其中只有三个亚种群的数量被统计过两次，其余都只被统计过一次。因此，根本无法确定北极熊数量的变化速度。第一次统计完成于1986年，只对一个亚种群进行了计数。

The U. S. Marine Mammal Commission, charged with the conservation of this species, acknowledges“Accurate estimates of the current and historicsizes of polar bear stocks are difficult to obtain for several reasons–thespecies‘ inaccessible habitat, the movement of bears across internationalboundaries, and the costs of conducting surveys.”

美国海洋哺乳动物委员会负有保护北极熊的责任，委员会承认“对北极熊当前及历史存量的精确估计非常困难，原因很多：这一物种的栖息地位于人迹罕至的地方，北极熊的活动跨越国境以及调查成本高。”

According to Dr. Susan Crockford, “ out of the 13 populations for whichsome kind of data exist, five populations are now classified by the PBSG [IUCN/SSC Polar Bear Specialist Group] as ‘stable’ (two more than 2009),one is still increasing, and three have been upgraded from ‘ declining ’ to ‘ datadeficient ’ . . . . That leaves four that are still considered ‘ declining ’‐ two of those judgments are based primarily on concerns of overhunting, and one is based on a statistically insignificant decline that may not be valid and is being reassessed (and really should have been upgraded to ‘data deficient’). That leaves only one population – Western Hudson Bay – where PBSG biologists tenaciously blame global warming for all changes to polar bear biology, and even then, the data supporting that conclusion is still not available. “

根据Susan Crockford博士称，“在有部分数据的13个种群中，5个被PBSG【 译注：PBSG，全称Polar Bear Specialist Group，是国际自然保护联盟物种存续委员会的北极熊专项小组 】归为‘数量稳定’（比2009年多了两个），有1个数量仍在增加，有3个的数据信息从‘数量减少’更新为‘数据不足’……这样，被认为数量正在减少的就只剩下4个，其中有2个主要是受到过度捕猎的影响，另1个种群的数量减少在统计意义上则并不显著，这一数据信息可能无效，正在被重新评估（实在应该被更新为“数据不足”）。这样，唯一剩下的就是西哈德森湾种群。当地的所有北极熊生物学变化都被PBSG的生物学家坚定地归咎于全球变暖，而即便如此，仍然没有充分数据支持这一结论。” Polar Bear Status (Source: Polar Bear Science Website.) 北极熊的状况 （来源：北极熊科学网站。）

【插图】 15.Some conclusions contradict and are ignorant of the best statistically valid observations. For example, the Terrestrial Ecosystems Report states that “terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems have sequestered about a quarter of the carbon dioxide emitted to the atmosphere by human activities in the past three decades (high confidence).” 15.有些结论无视统计上最有效的观测数据，甚至与其矛盾。 例如，陆地生态系统报告指出“过去30年，陆地和淡水生态系统吸收了大约四分之一人类活动所排放的二氧化碳（高可信度）。”

I have done the first statistically valid estimate of carbon storage and uptake for any large area of Earth’s land, the boreal forests and eastern deciduous forest of North America, and subtropical forests in Queensland, Australia.

我对地球上大面积陆地、北美寒带森林和东部落叶林以及澳大利亚昆士兰的亚热带森林对二氧化碳的储存和吸收做了第一次有效统计估计。【 译注：意思是他这份更系统全面的研究却被无视了 】

The estimates of carbon uptake by vegetation used by IPCC and in major articles cited by the reports are based on what can best be called “grab samples,” a relatively small number of studies done at a variety of times using a variety of methods, mainly in old- growth areas. The results reported by IPCC overestimate carbon storage and uptake by as much as 300 percent.

IPCC报告及其所引用的主要文章在估计植物对二氧化碳的吸收时，采用的是最多能被称为“随意抓取样本”的方法，即一种在涉及多个时段、多种研究方法的课题上只做相对少量研究的做法，且集中于老林区域。IPCC报告的研究结果对二氧化碳的存储和吸收高估了百分之三百。 16.The report for policy makers on Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability repeats the assertion of previous IPCC reports that “large fraction of species” face “increase extinction risks” (p15). Overwhelming evidence contradicts this assertion. And it has been clearly shown that models used to make these forecasts, such as climate envelope models and species-area curve models, make incorrect assumptions that lead to erroneous conclusions, over-estimating extinction risks. 16.向决策者提供的《关于影响、适应性及脆弱性》的报告 ，重复了之前IPCC报告中的断言:“大部分物种”面临“持续增加的灭绝风险”（第15页）。然而，压倒性的证据与这一断言相抵触。 如今我们已经很清楚，这些预测所用的模型，如气候包络模型、物种-面积曲线模型，设置了不正确的假设，从而导致了错误的结论，高估了物种灭绝的风险。

Surprisingly few species became extinct during the past 2.5 million years, a period encompassing several ice ages and warm periods.Among other sources, this is based on information in the book Climate Change and Biodiversity edited by Thomas Lovejoy, one of the leaders in the conservation of biodiversity. The major species known to have gone extinct during this period are 40 species of large mammals in North America and Northern Europe. (There is a “background” extinction rate for eukaryotic species of roughly one species per year.)

过去250万年间，尽管经历了多个冰川期和温暖期，灭绝的物种却少得惊人。得出这一结论的证据，包括Thomas Lovejoy编辑的《气候变化和生物多样性》一书，Lovejoy是保护物种多样性的领军人物之一。这一时期内灭绝的物种，主要为生活在北美和北欧的40种大型哺乳动物。（真核生物物种有一个“背景”灭绝率，大约每年有一个物种灭绝。） 17.THE REPORT GIVES THE IMPRESSION THAT LIVING THINGS ARE FRAGILE AND RIGID, unable to deal with change. The opposite is to case. Life is persistent, adaptable, adjustable. 17.报告给人的印象是生物脆弱又呆板，无法应对变化，而事实恰恰相反。生命是持久的、具有良好的适应性和调整能力。 18.STEADY-STATE ASSUMPTION: There is an overall assumption in the IPCC 2014 report and the Climate Change Assessment that all change is negative and undesirable; that it is ecologically and evolutionarily unnatural, bad for populations, species, ecosystems, for all life on planet Earth, including people. This is the opposite of the reality: The environment has always changed and is always changing, and living things have had to adapt to these changes. Interestingly, many, if not most, species that I have worked on or otherwise know about require environmental change. 18.稳态假设：IPCC 2014年度报告和《气候变化评估》中有一个基本的假设：所有的变化都是负面的，会带来麻烦；变化在生态和进化上是非自然的，对生物种群、物种、生态系统、地球上包括人类在内的所有生命都是有害的。这与现实完全相反： 环境过去一直在改变，现在也仍然在变化着，生物需要适应这些变化。有趣的是，许多我所研究过或者了解的物种，如果不是大部分的话，需要环境的变化才能生存。 19.The summary for policy makers on Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability makes repeated use of the term “irreversible” changes. A species going extinct is irreversible, but little else about the environment is irreversible. The past confirms this. Glaciers have come and gone repeatedly. The Northwest Passage of North America has gone and come again. The average temperature has greatly exceeded the present and forecasted and has declined only to rise again. 19. 有关《影响、适应性及脆弱性》的决策者参考摘要中，不断使用“不可逆转的”变化这一说法。 一个物种灭绝是不可逆转的，但其他环境现象很少是不可逆转的。历史证实了这点。冰川周期性地累积、消融。曾经消失的北美西北航道再次出现。【 校注：指北大西洋经北冰洋至太平洋的航道，可能因冰层融化而变得可通行 】（全球）平均气温曾远高于今天，也远高于我们对未来的预测值，只是后来下降了，然后再次回升。

Implicit in this repeated use of irreversible is the belief that Earth’s environment is constant — stable, unchanging — except when subjected to human actions.This is obviously false from many lines of evidence, including the simple experience of all people who have lived before the scientific-industrial age and those who live now and so such work as farm, manage rivers, wildlife and forests.

大量重复使用“不可逆转”，表明报告作者相信地球环境是始终如一的——稳定、一成不变——除非受到人类活动影响。种种证据表明这显然是错的。这些证据包括所有生活在科学和工业时代之前的人们，以及当代从事农耕，管理河道、野生动物和森林的人们的普通生活经历。 20.The extreme overemphasis on human-induced global warming has taken our attention away from many environmental issues that used to be front and center but have been pretty much ignored in the 21st century. The Terrestrial report in a sense acknowledges this, for example by stating: “ Climate stresses occur alongside other anthropogenic influences on ecosystems, including land-use changes, nonnative species, and pollution, and in many cases will exacerbate these pressures (very high confidence).” 20.过度强调人为因素对全球变暖的影响，已将我们的注意力从许多曾经备受关注的环境问题上转移开了，在21世纪，这些问题大都被忽视了。 陆地生态系统报告在某种程度上承认了这点，比如，报告指出：“气候变化与其他对生态系统的人类影响同时发生，包括土地利用的变化，外来物种，污染等等，而且很多时候会加剧后者的压力（极高可信度）。”

【插图】 21.Do the problems with these reports mean that we can or should abandon any concerns about global warming or abandon any research about it? Certainly not, but we need to put this issue within an appropriate priority with other major here-and-now environmental issues that are having immediate effects. 21.这些报告中存在的问题，是不是就意味着我们能够或者应该对全球变暖这一问题漠不关心，或者放弃关于这一问题的任何研究呢？ 当然不是， 只是相比那些此时此地正对我们生活产生直接影响的主要环境问题，全球变暖议题应当被放在一个恰当的优先级上。 22.The concerns I have mentioned with the IPCC apply as well to the White House’s National Climate Assessment. I reviewed and provided comments on the draft White House’s National Climate assessment and, unfortunately, it appears that these issues have not been addressed in the final assessment. For example, I stated: 22.我提及的对IPCC年度报告的担忧，同样适用于白宫《国家气候评估》报告。 我分析了白宫的国家气候评估报告草案，并提出了一些建议。可惜的是，我所指出的这些问题并没有在终稿中得到解决。例如，我曾表示：

“The executive summary is a political statement, not a scientific statement. It is filled with misstatements contradicted by well-established and well-known scientific papers.”

“它的执行摘要是一份政治声明，而非科学声明。摘要中充斥着与得到公认且广为人知的科学论文相抵触的虚假陈述。”

“Climate has always affected people and all life on Earth, so it isn’t new to say it is ‘already affecting the American people.’ This is just a political statement.”

“气候一直影响着人类及其他地球上的生命，所以说它‘已经影响到了美国人民’是毫无新意的。这只是一个政治声明。”

“It is inappropriate to use short-term changes in weather as an indication one way or another about persistent climate change.”

“用天气的短期变化作为气候持续变暖或变冷的指标是不恰当的。” WHAT HAS GONE WRONG, AND HOW TO FIX IT 问题 出在哪里，要怎么解决 1.Rather than focus on key, specific and tractable aspects of climate-change science, the long-term approach throughout the 20th century was to try to create de nova a complete model of the climate. 1. 气候变化科学贯穿整个20世纪的长期做法，是试图创造一个全新的、完备的气候模型，而不是将焦点集中于气候变化的关键、特定、可把握的方面。 2.This approach has been taken despite a lack of focus on monitoring key variables over time in statistically and scientifically valid ways, e. g. carbon sequestering by forests; polar bear population counts. As a result, there is an odd disconnect between theory and observation. The attempt to create complete models of every aspect of climate has meant that many factors had to be guessed at, rather than using the best scientific methods. Too many guesses, too little checking against real, observed effects. 2.尽管缺乏对关键变量——比如，森林对二氧化碳的吸收，北极熊的种群规模计算——统计上和科学上有效的观测手段的持续关注，上述做法还是被采用了。 结果，在理论与观测值之间出现了奇怪的裂痕。尝试建立一个囊括每个气候因素的完备模型，意味着许多因素要靠猜测，而不是依靠最佳科学方法。太多猜测，太少基于真实观测数据的检验。 3.The IPCC reports are the result of a very large number of people doing long reviews of the scientific literature. This easily leads to people being so overburdened that they misinterpret specific papers, fail to understand where the major observational gaps are, and have trouble making an accurate list of citations and all sources of information. The fundamental IPCC and White House Climate Change Assessment approach has been to gather a huge number of scientists from a large number of disciplines, on the assumption that a kind of crowd approach to what can be agreed on is the same as true scientific advance. While this might seem a reasonable and effective approach, there is some danger in relying on this “crowd-sourced” model of information sharing. 3.IPCC 报告是一大群人进行大规模科学论文综述的结果。这很容易导致人们负担过重而曲解某些论文，他们不能很好地理解哪些地方会产生主要的观测误差，也无法准确罗列出参考文献和各种信息来源。 IPCC和白宫《气候变化评估》所采用的基本方法，是基于“人多势众就是科学进步”的假设，集合大批涉及大量学科的科学家。虽然这是个看似合理有效的方法，但依赖于这样一个“源于大伙”的信息共享模型有一定的危险。

Groups of people, particularly when credentialed “experts” are involved, are very prone to a condition called an “information cascade” in which error is compounded by group think, assumptions become unchallenged “fact” and observations play second fiddle to unchallenged models.

一群人，尤其是有权威的“专家”参与其中，很容易出现所谓“信息裹挟”的问题，这种情况下，错误是集体“智慧”的结果，假设则成了无可辩驳的“事实”，观测到的真实信息在不容挑战的模型中居于次要地位。

The excellent scientists involved with the IPCC reports are no less prone to this than the excellent scientists who relied on Aristotelian models of a geocentric universe. Entrenched beliefs are hard to extricate, even amongst supposedly rational thinkers. This is probably in part responsible for the problems listed with the White House Climate Assessment report’s table of Biological Effects, discussed in my document reviewing that report.

参与IPCC报告的优秀科学家们并不比那些依赖亚里士多德的地心说的科学家更不容易犯这种错误。根深蒂固的想法很难被改变，甚至那些理应理性的学者也很难改变固有的想法。这或许可以部分解释我在针对白宫《气候评估报告》里那个“生物效应”表格所做的评论中列出的那一系列问题。 4.What a scientist discovers is different from what a scientist says. The first is science, the second is opinion. Have small groups of scientists work on this problem, no more than can easily argue with one another, that is less than 20 and preferably even smaller, representing the primary disciplines. Divide the problem into areas, rather than try to answer all questions in one analysis. I have used this approach in my own work and found it to be successful. 4.科学家发现的不同于科学家所说的。前者是科学，后者是观点。 组织一小群科学家研究这一问题，人数不应超过便于他们互相争论的范围，也就是少于20人甚至更少，让他们代表主要的学科。将这一问题划分为不同领域，而不是试图在一个分析中回答所有问题。我自己在研究中就用这个方法，发现这很有效。 5.The desire to do good has ironically overridden the desire to do the best science. 5.讽刺的是，行善的愿望盖过了做最佳科学研究的愿望。 6.Under the weight of this kind of crowd rule and approach, some specific alternative approaches to the science of climate change, have not been allowed to rise to the surface. 6.在这样一种集体规则和路线的重压下，研究气候变化科学的某些特定替代路线就没有机会得见天日。 7.Among the approaches that would improve climate science: 7.可以改进气候科学的做法包括： a.Return to the former reliance on science done by individuals and small groups with a common specific interest and focus.

a.回归到之前的状态，信任个人的科学研究，信任对特定领域感兴趣且专注于此的小团体所做的研究。

b.Change the approach from trying to make a complete, definitive model of every aspect of climate to a different level. See kinds of models that explore specific possibilities and phenomena.

b.在方法论上，由试图建立一个涵盖气候各个方面的、完备的、精确的模型，转变到另一层面，研究探索具体的可能性和现象的各种模型。

c.Get out of the blame game. None of the above suggestions can work as long as global warming remains a moral, political, ideologically dominated topic, with scientists pushed into, or at least viewed as, being either for or against a single point of view.

c.停止互相指责。只要全球变暖还是由道德、政治、意识形态主导的话题，科学家要被迫卷入其中明确站队，或者至少仍被看作在这么做，那么以上所有的建议都不会有用。 9.We need to focus again on major environmental Issues that need our attention now (see the list above). 9.我们需要将目标移回真正需要我们关注的主要环境问题 （参见上表）。【 编注：编码有误，原文如此。 】 10.ARE THERE EXAMPLES OF THE KIND OF RESEARCH I BELIEVE WE NEED MORE OF? YES. 10.能否举出一些依我看我们更为需要的此类研究？ 能。 a.NASA Carbon Monitoring System (CMS)

b. Hubbard Brook Ecosystem Study

c. Whooping Crane monitoring, e.g. of an endangered species

d. In-place monitoring on carbon flux, being done by the USGS in the Great Cypress Swamp, Florida.

e. Many others.

a.美国国家航空航天局碳排放监测系统。

b. 哈伯德·布鲁克生态系统研究。

c.对濒临灭绝的物种进行监测，例如，美洲鹤监测。

d. 碳排放波动实地监测，由美国地质调查局（USGS）在佛罗里达州大柏树沼泽实施。

e. 还有很多。

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